The first time, regardless of feelings about the decision, was a hell of a fight.

The second was better.

Can two of the premiere rivals of the 21st century top themselves one more time?

That will be the hope of everyone filing into the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas or tuning in at home (DAZN PPV, 7 PM EST). A lot of time has passed since the sequel, approximately four years, and whether both men in the equation can deliver what they did in 2018 remains to be seen.

They’ve gone on different paths.

Alvarez is 7-1 since winning the Golovkin rematch. Six of the seven wins came against men ranked in the top ten of their weight class (ranging from middleweight to light heavyweight) by both TBRB and Ring Magazine. Alvarez added a title at light heavyweight and unified the super middleweight division along the way, but enters this weekend coming off a decisive loss at light heavyweight to Dmitry Bivol.

Golovkin is 3-0 since the loss to Alvarez, with all three wins coming against top ten middleweights. Golovkin regained the IBF crown and added the WBA belt in his last outing with a stoppage of Ryota Murata. For the first time, the aging slugger will move to challenge for gold at super middleweight, looking for the rights to a lineal crown that eluded him at 160 lbs.

Let’s get into it.

Stats and Stakes

Saul Alvarez

Age: 32

Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 2 Defenses); WBO Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 1 Defense); Lineal/TBRB/IBF Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 0 Defenses)

Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’8

Weight: 167 ½ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico

Record: 57-2-2, 39 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 17-2-1, 10 KO (18-2-1, 11 KO including WBA sub-title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 118-2 (.983)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12; Billy Joe Saunders RTD8; Caleb Plant TKO11; Dmitry Bivol L12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12

Vs.

Gennadiy Golovkin

Age: 40

Titles: IBF Middleweight (2019-Present, 2 Defenses); WBA Middleweight (2022-Present, 0 Defenses); IBO Middleweight (2019-Present, 2 Defenses);

Previous Titles: WBA Middleweight (2013-18, 14 Defenses*); WBC Middleweight (2014-18, 7 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2015-18, 4 Defenses); IBO Middleweight (2013-18, 12 Defenses)

Height: 5’10 ½

Weight: 167 ¾ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Los Angeles, California (Hails from Kazakhstan)

Record: 42-1-1, 37 KO

Press Rankings: #1 (TBRB, Ring, BoxRec), #2 (ESPN)

Record in Major Title Fights: 17-1-1, 15 KO (23-1-1, 21 KO including interim or sub-title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 118-4-2 (.960)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Grzegorz Proksa TKO5; Gabriel Rosado TKO7; Matthew Macklin TKO3; Curtis Stevens RTD8; Daniel Geale TKO3; Marco Antonio Rubio KO2; Martin Murray TKO11; David Lemieux TKO8; Kell Brook TKO5; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Saul Alvarez D12, L12; Sergiy Derevyanchenko UD12; Kamil Szeremata RTD7; Ryota Murata TKO9

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Kassim Ouma TKO10

*Golovkin initially won the WBA’s interim title in 2010, upgraded to their sub-title, and made five defenses before becoming the primary WBA titlist.

The Case for Alvarez: While Alvarez is coming off a loss, Bivol was a much different challenge than Golovkin. The younger, longer, and technically astute light heavyweight came to box his way to victory and did. In Golovkin, Alvarez will be facing a man who isn’t going to make him track him down all night. In both the first and second fights, Alvarez got off to excellent starts. In the first, he won the opening two frames on all three scorecards. In the rematch, Alvarez won the second and third rounds on all cards. A strong start here would allow Alvarez to put the Bivol loss behind him and force Golovkin to get aggressive early. Alvarez’s body attack has been potent against Golovkin so far and Golovkin has seemed to start slower in both his last two contests. Alvarez might want to end this series with a stoppage but he doesn’t need it. Alvarez’s advantages in speed and defensive reflexes employed with an eye on piling up rounds provide a clear path to victory.

The Case for Golovkin: Golovkin should have had their first fight but he didn’t and it could be the decision that will haunt him forever. This is his last chance to exorcize it and to do so he may have to come out guns blazing. It doesn’t mean Golovkin can’t settle down somewhere in the middle of the fight with an eye on a closing push but the older man can’t afford to find himself falling behind early and playing catch up. Golovkin needs to establish his jab, be more aggressive to the body than he was in either of the first two fights, and force Alvarez into spots where the champion gets reckless. Both men have excellent chins but if he can make Alvarez uncomfortable and back him up, if Golovkin can outperform some of the skepticism about where he is physically in 2022 and at 40, it could sway the perception of a fight that is playing close. Golovkin may get some benefit of the doubt in rounds this time after so many coin flips frames got away the last time. The change in division should be no disadvantage (Alvarez started lower on the scale) and could even help Golovkin if less weight cutting refreshes his legs a bit.

The Pick: This is the first time Golovkin enters a fight in the series as the underdog. The idea that Golovkin outperforming expectations in another close fight could work for him in much the same way it may have worked for Alvarez before is intriguing. These are two evenly matched, highly skilled fighters who know each other. The chances are high for another close, tightly contested battle and judges are human. They know that many feel Golovkin won both of the first two fights with a more adamant case for the first. They know Golovkin is 40.

Ultimately, that feels like the less realistic option. Alvarez is going to be motivated after Bivol. He didn’t just lose that fight. He looked bad in it, openly frustrated and confused for long spots. Golovkin is a chance to be in with someone whose style meshes with his and who he can land on with authority. Alvarez is going to be first, probably going to be better to the body, and Golovkin may not have the same gas tank to stay with Alvarez for three minutes at a time.

It should be another good fight but the pick here is for this to be the clearest decision of the three, with Alvarez retaining the super middleweight title by decision.

Rold Picks 2022: 38-9

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com